Re: Monetary policy & Baltic Labor Markets. Interesting piece. Do the authors offer any casual or off the cuff empirical arguments that would explain the differences by country. Are there labor rigidities in one country not shared by the others? Are there institutional issues around postings for example and the speed with which they are changed. It would be interesting to posit such and then look for a labor market (e.g., Finland or Poland) where such did not happen in the same way as Baltics to confirm or reject. [Here's what I mean. In my past, we once verified a type of payday effect in stock prices (as opposed to a naive calendar effect) and conjectured a pay period specific mechanism. We tested the conjecture by going to a country with a different pay period that did not line up in the same way with the calendar. We found a similar payday phenomenon. Anecdotally then, we confirmed the stock price effect was likely due to the pay period rather than the calendar.]. Such would be interesting here especially if the rationale exposes an institutional rigidity or practice. Fun piece.
Great story on the payday effect and how you effectively confirmed its presence through out-of-sample testing.
In the paper, the authors really only offer one reason for the heterogeneity in the strength of the relationship between monetary policy and job postings. At the start of page 9, they wrote
"Although these countries had similar level of labor market flexibility prior to
the COVID-19 pandemic (Krasnopjorovs, 2019), the differential effects of monetary policy shocks on online job vacancy postings during the pandemic may reflect, to some extent, the differences in government policy interventions to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic."
They also mention that Baltic states have desynchronized economic cycles with the rest of the eurozone countries. I'm nowhere near an expert on the economic states of various eurozone countries, but this may answer your question on how Baltic states respond to monetary policy differently relative to other eurozone countries.
Hmmmm. Interesting. Thank you.
Re: Monetary policy & Baltic Labor Markets. Interesting piece. Do the authors offer any casual or off the cuff empirical arguments that would explain the differences by country. Are there labor rigidities in one country not shared by the others? Are there institutional issues around postings for example and the speed with which they are changed. It would be interesting to posit such and then look for a labor market (e.g., Finland or Poland) where such did not happen in the same way as Baltics to confirm or reject. [Here's what I mean. In my past, we once verified a type of payday effect in stock prices (as opposed to a naive calendar effect) and conjectured a pay period specific mechanism. We tested the conjecture by going to a country with a different pay period that did not line up in the same way with the calendar. We found a similar payday phenomenon. Anecdotally then, we confirmed the stock price effect was likely due to the pay period rather than the calendar.]. Such would be interesting here especially if the rationale exposes an institutional rigidity or practice. Fun piece.
Great story on the payday effect and how you effectively confirmed its presence through out-of-sample testing.
In the paper, the authors really only offer one reason for the heterogeneity in the strength of the relationship between monetary policy and job postings. At the start of page 9, they wrote
"Although these countries had similar level of labor market flexibility prior to
the COVID-19 pandemic (Krasnopjorovs, 2019), the differential effects of monetary policy shocks on online job vacancy postings during the pandemic may reflect, to some extent, the differences in government policy interventions to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic."
They also mention that Baltic states have desynchronized economic cycles with the rest of the eurozone countries. I'm nowhere near an expert on the economic states of various eurozone countries, but this may answer your question on how Baltic states respond to monetary policy differently relative to other eurozone countries.