The Perfect Recession Predictor Part 1

A multi-part series exploring the predictive power of various recession indicators through the findings of academic research

Hello!

This will be the start of a multi-part series on so-called recession "predictors" and their historical validity. Given the recent market volatility and correction, these indicators are more important than ever.

This series will also feature findings from an academic paper that claims to have found the "perfect" recession predictor by examining millions of permutations of interest rate spreads. This paper was also featured in my Recent Academic Research post a little while ago.

This first post will introduce common recession indicators and popular academic papers on recession prediction.

Let’s get into it.