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I, Bayes's avatar

My vote is for forecasting recessions.

Covered calls are also a very interesting topic; it's a pity that the dataset is limited to 2023. I think if we re-run the research with recent data, buy-and-hold will crush covered calls, but it's only my speculation.

Alpha in Academia's avatar

Yes, the forecasting recessions paper is quite interesting. You may be interested in this post of mine as well: https://open.substack.com/pub/alphainacademia/p/the-perfect-recession-predictor-part-c3c?r=1v99qs&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

And on the topic of covered calls, from what I have seen, covered call strategies underperform buy-and-hold over the long term, like you said. I don't think the premium received is greater than the impact of the lost upside when the market rips higher.

Mr.Errata's avatar

For me it would be “Momentum in REITs”

Alpha in Academia's avatar

Yeah, definitely an interesting paper. I may backtest the strategy in the future.